When tokens are drawn without replacement, P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B given A). Permutations count orders and combinations count groups, and both turn into probabilities. A random variable gives each outcome a number; its probability distribution can be graphed, and its expected value is the long-run mean. Expected value weighs a decision, and equal probabilities make a draw fair. The crew runs Regatta Day on all of it.