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Week 11 · The Climate Record

Friday

Evidence from ice, sea and sky
// How NOAA and NASA measure a warming planet
⏱ about 20 min

Friday: Evidence from Ice, Sea and Sky

Rocket arrives with a frozen juice-box-sized block from the freezer and sets it on the Station Rooftop table.

"Ice remembers," he says. "Scientists drill into glaciers and read the layers like pages."

Raven turns the block in the light. Tiny bubbles are trapped inside. "What do you notice in there?"

"Air," Rocket says. "Old air, if the ice is old enough."

Nova hovers close and glows through the ice. "Old air carries old carbon dioxide," she says. "And ice is only one witness."

"Sea level, sea ice, tree rings, satellites," Raven lists. "Each one keeps its own record."

Rocket grins. "Then let us call the witnesses."

Witness one: ice cores

NASA explains that ice cores drilled from Greenland, Antarctica and tropical mountain glaciers hold a record of past climate.

They show that Earth's climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels.

Ancient evidence also comes from tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs and layers of rock.

NASA notes that in the last 800,000 years there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods.

The last ice age ended about 11,700 years ago. Most of those old changes came from very small shifts in Earth's orbit.

NASA says the current warming is different. It is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and it is faster.

The paleoclimate record shows warming today happening roughly 10 times faster than the average warming after an ice age.

NASA explains how the ice record forms. Year after year of snowfall piles up, and the weight of each new layer presses the older snow into ice.

As the ice compacts, tiny bubbles of air are pressed inside, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

Scientists can directly measure the gases in those bubbles. The oldest cores, from East Antarctica, hold an 800,000-year record.

Each year's snow is slightly different, so the layers can be counted like the rings of a tree.

Witness two: the sea

NOAA reports that global average sea level has risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880.

The rise comes from two things: meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets, and seawater expanding as it warms.

The rate is speeding up. It was about 1.4 millimeters per year for most of the 20th century.

From 2006 to 2015 it was 3.6 millimeters per year, more than double the old rate.

NASA adds that the ocean has taken in about 90 percent of the extra heat in the Earth system.

Witness three is Arctic sea ice. Satellites have measured Arctic sea ice since the late 1970s. NOAA reports it has decreased in all months and nearly all regions.

In September 2024, the ice covered 4.38 million square kilometers. That is 2.03 million square kilometers less than the 1981 to 2010 average.

NOAA notes the missing area is larger than Alaska.

Between 1979 and 2024, end-of-summer sea ice shrank by 12.1 percent per decade compared with that average.

WitnessWhat the record shows (NOAA and NASA)
Ice coresClimate responds to greenhouse gas levels; eight ice age cycles in 800,000 years
Sea levelUp 8 to 9 inches since 1880; rate rose from 1.4 to 3.6 mm per year
Arctic sea iceDown 12.1 percent per decade at summer's end, 1979 to 2024
The oceanHas absorbed about 90 percent of the extra heat
CALL THE WITNESSES
  • Read the question.
  • Tap your answer.
What do ice cores show about greenhouse gases?
What are the two causes of sea level rise NOAA names?
How much of the extra heat has the ocean absorbed, according to NASA?
How fast is today's warming compared with warming after an ice age?
HOW AN ICE CORE TELLS ITS STORY
  • Tap a card.
  • Then tap its spot.
1First
2Second
3Third
4Last

What the evidence does not say, and what people can do

This course teaches the record as NOAA and NASA state it. It does not make predictions beyond those pages.

The evidence names a cause, not a culprit. No student and no family caused this record. It is the sum of a whole world's energy use.

NASA notes that Earth already removes carbon dioxide through plants, soil and the ocean. Plants take it in through photosynthesis.

Next week you turn to design. Communities make choices about shade, buildings and energy, and you will design a plan for your home.

Week reviewTrue or false?
NASA's record uses more than 25,000 weather stations plus ships and buoys.?
Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be warmer.?
NASA and NOAA name burning fossil fuels as the main cause of the rise since the mid-1900s.?
Global sea level has risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880.?
Arctic sea ice has grown since the late 1970s.?
WHY THIS EXERCISEThese five facts are the backbone of the climate record.
By what percent per decade has end-of-summer Arctic sea ice shrunk since 1979? Type the number.
WHY THIS EXERCISEA rate per decade lets you compare sea ice with the temperature and carbon dioxide tables.
OUR WEEK, IN ORDER
  • ?We learned how thousands of thermometers become one global record.
  • ?We turned our own station log into an anomaly chart.
  • ?We read NOAA's temperature and carbon dioxide tables.
  • ?We learned how greenhouse gases trap heat and what has added to them.
  • ?We called three witnesses: ice cores, the sea and Arctic sea ice.
WHY THIS EXERCISEThe week moved from measurement, to cause, to your own data, to the evidence.
On paper, draw an ice core as a tall striped cylinder. Label the newest layer at the top, the oldest at the bottom, and a few trapped bubbles of old air.
Try it
Put an ice cube in a full glass of water with a grown-up watching. Mark the water line. Does the line rise as the cube melts?
Now think: which kind of melting ice raises sea level, ice floating in the sea or ice resting on land?
Safety first
Use a plastic cup or a sturdy glass on a tray. Wipe up any spill right away.
Nothing in this activity is tasted.

A strong week of evidence. Tomorrow's Station Day builds a family question board.

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