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Week 08 · Charts That Mislead

Thursday

Does the chart support the claim?
// How a true number can tell a false story
⏱ about 20 min

Thursday: Does the Chart Support the Claim?

Comet rushes in waving a new chart. "Huge news! Most members want longer evening hours!"

Her chart shows the Q3 answers from the members who usually visit in the afternoon, when the crew is there. Five of their 9 valid answers chose longer evening hours.

Wren reads the chart's title. Then he reads the whole Q3 table.

"What do you notice about who is in your chart?" he asks.

Comet blinks. "Only the afternoon members. I filtered the sheet."

Nova hovers beside the two tables. "Would you like a hint?" she asks.

"A claim about most members needs data about all the members who answered. Compare the slice with the whole."

A slice or the whole?

Filtering keeps only part of a data set, such as only the afternoon members.

Filtering is a useful way to get information from data. But a claim about everyone needs data about everyone who answered.

Choosing only the slice of data that fits a claim, and leaving out the rest, is called cherry-picking.

Q3 answerAfternoon members onlyEveryone who answered
Longer evening hours513
Quiet study room211
Repair bench19
Bike rack15
Total valid938

Made-up data from the Commons Count story.

CHECK THE NUMBERS
  • Read the question.
  • Tap your answer.
Among afternoon members with a valid answer, did more than half choose longer evening hours?
Among everyone with a valid answer, did more than half choose longer evening hours?
Comet's claim is "Most members want longer evening hours." Is it supported?

One source is rarely enough

Often, a single source does not hold all the data needed for a conclusion.

You may need to combine data from more than one source.

The survey heard from 40 of the Commons' 120 members. The crew's sign-in book covers all 120, so it can show who the survey missed.

Claims checklistQuestion to ask
WhoDoes the claim match who is in the data?
Whole or sliceDoes it use all the data, or a filtered slice?
Honest pictureDoes the chart start at 0, with equal steps, a title and a source?
NumbersDo the numbers really say "most", "all" or "biggest"?
Second sourceIs there another source that agrees or disagrees?
SUPPORTED OR NOT?
  • Read the question.
  • Tap your answer.
"Longer evening hours was the most common choice among the 38 valid answers."
"Every afternoon member wants longer evening hours."
"All 120 members want longer evening hours."
Half of 38 is ____. Type the number as a word.
Using only the slice of data that fits a claim is cherry-____.
StatementTrue or false?
Filtering a data set can be a useful way to find information.?
A claim about all members can rest on a slice of afternoon members.?
A single source often holds all the data needed for a conclusion.?
The sign-in book could help the crew see who the survey missed.?
WHY THIS EXERCISEMatching a claim to the right data is how an analyst keeps a true number from telling a false story.
On paper, draw two Q3 bar graphs side by side: afternoon members only, and everyone. Give both the same y-axis, from 0 to 14.

Careful thinking, data analyst. Tomorrow is Impact Friday: who a chart can help, and who it can harm.

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